An AI generated image of a trendline overlaying the image of a watchshot. Back in April, I posted a summary of preowned watch price discounts from a major online retailer. The discounts were larger than I expected, averaging roughly 25%. This week, I received an email from the same retailer about another discount event, so I thought I would update the April exercise. Bottom line up front: the discounting continues but it may have slowed slightly. Let's get into the details.
Chrono24's Chronopulse price index (disclosure: I participated in development of this index) shows that prices did increase by 6/10 of one percent heading into the beginning of May. Screenshot of some of the most recent market data from Chrono24's ChronoPulse.Aside from the traditional end-of-year holidays, graduation season in May / June is a high point for watch purchases as friends and relatives gift timepieces to new graduates. For this reason, the May uptick in prices may have been part of a simple seasonal pattern (indeed, 2023 showed a similar increase in May). By the end of June, though, prices were back down again, below where they were in April. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster as the fourth quarter of the fiscal year closes.
The data I scraped from the latest sale email covered 115 watches, a noticeably larger sample than what I captured back in April. The distribution of undiscounted prices in the sale. The most expensive watch was a "high complication" Audemars Piguet Royal Oak with an undiscounted price over $100,000. At the more accessible price bracket were a number of models from Cartier and Bell & Ross in the $2,500 - $3,800 range. There was even a watch from a very well-known and collectible independent brand. The median price in the sample is $8,000 with an average of roughly $14,600.
The distribution of discount values in the sale, I've left out outlier discounts over $17,000 for this figure.The dollar value of discounts also covered a wide spread. The same AP watch I mentioned above was discounted by a little over $30,000, the largest discount in the sample. The smallest discount was for a Bell & Ross at $130. The median discount amount was $1,450 and the average discount was roughly $2,550.
The distribution of discount percentages, I've left out watches with a discount of over $17,000.The relationship between discount value and undiscounted price, I've left out watches with an undiscounted price of over $60,000.The smallest discount percent was 5% while the largest was 75%. Of all measures, the discount percentages were closest to symmetrically distributed around the mean of 18.3%. The median discount was 17.3%. On average, this particular retailer is not discounting timepieces as much as they were in April. Unlike back in April, though, there was no relationship between the rate of discount and the original price of a timepiece. This time around, there was a relationship between the dollar amount of the discount and the original price. My estimates suggest that for every $1 increase in original price, this retailer offered a 14.6 cents discount (ie if there are two watches and one was initially priced $100 more then the other, the higher priced watch would be discounted by roughly $15 more).
In some sense, this latest price drop announcement sends a mixed message about the state of the market. It is true that, percentagewise and on average, the price cuts are not as large as what I described in April. But I'm not certain this really suggests that prices are beginning to stabilize. Discounting over 100 watches covering such a wide price range suggests, to me, that a whole lot of inventory is still not moving as quickly as this retailer would like. It remains to be seen if the discount percentages continue their drift towards zero. The silver lining, for collectors, is that there are a whole lot of timepieces that are far more achievable than at any time in the recent past. And, collector insurance premiums should be going down given the overall trend in watch pricing.
My book on the history of Rolex marketing is now available on Amazon! It debuted as the #1 New Release in its category. You can find it here.
Thank you for putting together such a detailed analysis; it's interesting to see how things are faring on the other side of the Atlantic. Here in the UK, 'ticket' prices from the established second-hand network (not the post-COVID IG flippers wannabe dealers) tend to be lower than in the US. But stock turn is still slow regardless. Vintage watches, although I don't personally like the term as it makes me feel old, are still strong, especially if they are good and complete examples. But more modern pieces are sticky, irrespective of brand. I think the post-COVID drop in pre-owned values, especially here in the UK, has certainly tempered a lot of the enthusiasm around brands. Non-watch buyers who were buying in solely for profit have left the market. And buyers new to the market are beginning to take a broader look at what their money can buy them. For those of us who remember when a steel Rolex sub-date had a retail price of £1,780, we are still getting our heads around why some people spent £50,000 on 116500 LN Cosmoraphs. It is certainly a funny old world.
Oh, and you raise an interesting point about the possible reduction in insurance premiums. On the face of it, if something costs less to replace. Then, one would imagine the premium would be less. But I am cynical and doubt that would be transferred to a policyholder. But it is certainly a question I will ask colleagues in the UK insurance market. But I think there may well be too many variables from policy to policy to establish any justifiable data on that point. But it's worth looking into, nonetheless.
INTERNET SCAM ALERT The internet today is full of SCAM ADS, mostly in comments of various sites and blogs. A large number of individuals have been victims of scam and lost a lot of money to SCAMMERS. Most of the common scam you can see BANK LOAN SCAM. CRYPTO INVESTMENT SCAM. LOTTERY SCAM. HACKING SCAM. and lost more......
The big Question is “Can someone who is a victim of Scam get their money back I will say yes, and will tell you how.
The only way to Recovery your is to hire a Hacker who will help you take back your money from this Scammers and today is your lucky day, you just met the guys perfect for the job.
WHO ARE WE We are PYTHONAX, A group of skilled Hackers who have dedicated our time to help individuals get back thier money from INTERNET SCAMMERS. There is a research that was carried out to determine the amount of money lost through Scam, and it was confirmed that over USD $3 billion annually, millions of people get scammed everyday.
HOW DO WE OPERATE We first of all study the scammer(s) brought to us by hacking the device(phone or computer) to get information of How, Where, this person keeps money he/she as defrauded people of ( so many of this scammers don’t actually save the money in banks, they mostly stack the money in a Bitcoin wallet, that way it is safe and untraceable to authorities) and we work on a strategy to get back the money and give it back to whom they have defrauded.
Contacting us is simple, just give us a message through the email below. New Email -: PYTHONAXHACKS@GMAIL.COMOld -: PYTHONAXSERVICES@GMAIL.COM If you a victim of internet scam or you know someone who is, make contact to us immediately. You are % safe to contact us, our email is very secure.
We also provide Legit Hacking Services such as-: Phone Hacking/Cloning Email Hacking & Password Recovery Social Media Hacking & Passowrd Recovery Deleted Files Recovery Mobil Tracking Virus detection & Elimination. e.t.c Email-: PYTHONAXHACKS@GMAIL.COM
Among many avid watch collectors, the term "in house movement" seems to elicit eyerolling disdain. Pieces of an assortment, including balance spring, from a non-Swiss movement. There is a sizeable perception that "in house" is, in fact, nothing more than an unnecessary marketing ploy designed to tease more money out of the wallet of buyers (by way of definition, an "in house" movement means that the mechanism inside a watch was predominently manufactured by a brand itself, kind of like "we make our own bread" at a restaurant). I'll confess that I'd begun to think similarly, that is, until I read a 66 page report posted by the Swiss Competition Commision on May 10, 2023. Yes, this is the kind of thing an economist finds interesting on a weekend, or at least this economist. Before we get into the details of this report, in the interest of full disclosure I should say that the original document was in a different language: lawyerese.
What it might look like if Aragon and Argon watches actually went to court over the trademark dispute. My prior post described a disappointing development for those collectors hoping to acquire an Argon Spaceone watch via the brand's Kickstarter campaign. The campaign had reached over $1 million in funding when Kickstarter's management stepped in and froze the whole thing over an "intellectual property dispute." When I posted about this development on Instagram , Hodinkee editor Tony Traina noted in the comments that another brand, Aragon watches, had filed a complaint with the US Patent and Trade Office (USPTO) back in April (thanks Tony!). Argon's account replied and indicated that they had already filed a registration for their brand name and they were retaining counsel in New York City. On Tuesday, June 27 of this week, more details were offered via a lawsuit filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of Florida. The case is filed on behalf
There comes a moment in the servicing of a watch that is probably easy to miss among the hundreds of steps required to remove a movement from a case, inspect the parts, repair anything amiss, lubricate all the pieces, and put the whole thing together again. A watch that Rolex's investigator bought at Beckertime for approximately $4,500. The lawsuit refers to this as "Counterfeit Watch One." That moment is when a watchmaker takes the dial and reattaches it to the movement. There is nothing particularly unique when it comes to the tools required or the tasks involved in this step. Instead, what is unique about this moment is that the watchmaker holds in their hand a mark that is not the property of the watchmaker and it is not exactly the property of the watch's owner. In the case of Vacheron Constantin, that mark is a Maltese Cross. For Audemars Piguet, it is the brand's initials. When it comes to Rolex, the mark is a widely recognized crown. If the reassembly
Thank you for putting together such a detailed analysis; it's interesting to see how things are faring on the other side of the Atlantic. Here in the UK, 'ticket' prices from the established second-hand network (not the post-COVID IG flippers wannabe dealers) tend to be lower than in the US. But stock turn is still slow regardless. Vintage watches, although I don't personally like the term as it makes me feel old, are still strong, especially if they are good and complete examples. But more modern pieces are sticky, irrespective of brand. I think the post-COVID drop in pre-owned values, especially here in the UK, has certainly tempered a lot of the enthusiasm around brands. Non-watch buyers who were buying in solely for profit have left the market. And buyers new to the market are beginning to take a broader look at what their money can buy them. For those of us who remember when a steel Rolex sub-date had a retail price of £1,780, we are still getting our heads around why some people spent £50,000 on 116500 LN Cosmoraphs. It is certainly a funny old world.
ReplyDeleteOh, and you raise an interesting point about the possible reduction in insurance premiums. On the face of it, if something costs less to replace. Then, one would imagine the premium would be less. But I am cynical and doubt that would be transferred to a policyholder. But it is certainly a question I will ask colleagues in the UK insurance market. But I think there may well be too many variables from policy to policy to establish any justifiable data on that point. But it's worth looking into, nonetheless.
Many thanks again for your post.
INTERNET SCAM ALERT
ReplyDeleteThe internet today is full of SCAM ADS, mostly in comments of various sites and blogs. A large number of individuals have been victims of scam and lost a lot of money to SCAMMERS. Most of the common scam you can see
BANK LOAN SCAM. CRYPTO INVESTMENT SCAM. LOTTERY SCAM. HACKING SCAM. and lost more......
The big Question is “Can someone who is a victim of Scam get their money back
I will say yes, and will tell you how.
The only way to Recovery your is to hire a Hacker who will help you take back your money from this Scammers and today is your lucky day, you just met the guys perfect for the job.
WHO ARE WE
We are PYTHONAX, A group of skilled Hackers who have dedicated our time to help individuals get back thier money from INTERNET SCAMMERS. There is a research that was carried out to determine the amount of money lost through Scam, and it was confirmed that over USD $3 billion annually, millions of people get scammed everyday.
HOW DO WE OPERATE
We first of all study the scammer(s) brought to us by hacking the device(phone or computer) to get information of How, Where, this person keeps money he/she as defrauded people of ( so many of this scammers don’t actually save the money in banks, they mostly stack the money in a Bitcoin wallet, that way it is safe and untraceable to authorities) and we work on a strategy to get back the money and give it back to whom they have defrauded.
Contacting us is simple, just give us a message through the email below.
New Email -: PYTHONAXHACKS@GMAIL.COMOld -: PYTHONAXSERVICES@GMAIL.COM
If you a victim of internet scam or you know someone who is, make contact to us immediately. You are % safe to contact us, our email is very secure.
We also provide Legit Hacking Services such as-: Phone Hacking/Cloning Email Hacking & Password Recovery Social Media Hacking & Passowrd Recovery Deleted Files Recovery Mobil Tracking Virus detection & Elimination. e.t.c
Email-: PYTHONAXHACKS@GMAIL.COM
Pythonax.2023 © All Right Reserved.