Horolonomics

In 1946, economists Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell provided a formal definition of business cycles. I asked AI to create an image in the style of Salvador Dali's Persistence of Memory featuring the letters "RHT" and this is what I got. Their conceptualization is extensive but one of the most important elements is the idea that cycles are "recurrent but not periodic." In other words, fluctuations happen over and over again, but they do not follow a regular pattern. In the world of horology, recurrent but non-periodic processes are familiar and a great challenge when it comes to tracking the passage of months and years (as well as other events like Easter). The end of a month recurs twelve times each year, but the length of a month is not always the same (and leap years mean that February has an extra day every four years, I'd rather not even begin to talk about leap seconds). The past two years provide compelling evidence that the watch industry als...

Philanthropic activity is sometimes overlooked when it comes to the watch industry. Satellite view of the Pont Hans Wilsdorf. There are certainly marketing campaigns which publicize watch industry support of the arts and the environment, for example. But some activity is less well-known but no less important. For example, consider a certain bit of road in Switzerland. Geneva's Pont Hans-Wilsdorf, or Hans Wilsdorf Bridge in English, is architecturally very unique, with an organically designed superstructure reminiscent of the work by famed architect Antoni Gaudí (well, reminiscent to me at least). The bridge spans the Arve River and allows pedestrians, bikes and cars to move between the neighborhoods of Les Vernets and Plainpalais. I've heard some lore about this bridge, mostly due to the fact that the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation, the non-profit owner of Rolex, paid for its construction. Generally, infrastructure like this would be funded out of public coffers. The bridge wa...

I recently learned that the CEO of Audemars Piguet Americas (APA), Ginny Wright, was departing the legendary watch brand. A tabletop model of the AP "Starwheel," photo taken at AP House NYC. The new CEO of AP Americaa will be Louis-Gabriel Fichet, who joined AP in 2020. I learned about this development from an online watch publication whose editor opined on the matter . I feel obliged to respond to that piece because I think it reveals some concerning biases in watch industry coverage, biases which will only diminish if we talk about them openly and honestly. There were three critiques of Ms. Wright's time at the helm of APA that jumped out to me. First was the allegation that Ms. Wright suffered a "sudden removal." Subsequent to this critique, Ms. Wright posted on her Instagram account that she is "returning to the world of prestige beauty and stepping into a global CEO role." Moving from a regional executive position to a global one is not ind...

Last week, Icebox / Swiss Watches GA, a third party retailer of pre-owned watches, officially acknowledged receipt of a lawsuit filed by Rolex USA in the US District Court for the Northern District of Georgia - Atlanta Division. A screenshot of the Icebox / Swiss Watches GA retail location Source: Rolex's legal filing. The cause of action for Rolex's lawsuit against Icebox / Swiss Watches GA is "Trademark Counterfeiting, Trademark Infringement, False Advertising, Designation of Origin, Descriptions, Representations, and Unfair Competition." I've previously covered lawsuits of this sort filed by Rolex against independent retailers who sell modified watches. But this one is an order of magnitude different. Icebox / Swiss Watches GA has some very high-profile clientele. For example, a YouTube video from five years ago entitled "Post Malone Buys Rolex For 21 Savage & Autographs A Bugatti!" has over seven million views (the video content is pretty ...

Anarchy is a society without laws. AI generated image of a law rendered void. I sometimes wonder if watch collecting is a near-anarchic niche given the number of laws and regulations which are normally reliable but often weakly enforced when it comes to watch collecting. Take, for example, theft of a $20,000 car. According to the Insurance Information Institute, 85% of stolen cars are recovered. You have decent odds of retrieving a stolen car. Or, if your insurance company disburses cash to compensate the victim of car theft, then the insurance company has a very good chance of getting stolen cars back, selling them, and maintaining lower premiums as a result. I don't know for certain, but I strongly suspect that a stolen Rolex Daytona ref 116250 worth $20,000 is recovered far less than 85% of the time. For example, The Watch Register claims to have over 100,000 stolen watch serial numbers in its database. Over a decade, it also claims to have seen the recovery of 4,500 watc...

Of late it appears that the Kering group is steadly withdrawing resources from watchmaking. Gucci's watchmaking office in Switzerland. Source: Google Earth. Kering owns Gucci and a number of other brands. In January of 2022, word broke that Kering had jettisoned Ulysse Nardin and Girard-Perregaux . Management acquired ownership and has been operating the brands since then (unless there was another, subsequent, private party sale of ownership stakes). The most recent step on the path to a reduction in Kering's watchmaking footprint appears to involve Gucci Watchmaking. News broke last week that Gucci's watchmaking office in Cortaillod, Switzerland has notified the trade union for watchmaking that the brand would like to dismiss 25 employees. The brand and the union have started negotiations regarding the possible layoffs. Such steps are usually the last that a business will take, typically only under the most challenging and fraught financial circumstances. As I wr...